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XRP Decoupling Underway Despite ETF Issuer Activity
WisdomTree recently withdrew its S-1 application for an XRP-spot ETF. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley pressed on with filings for BTC-spot and SOL-spot ETFs. This move comes in spite of XRP’s commendable performance in spot ETF markets, overshadowing both BTC and SOL in the US.
Crypto market analysts are taking a keen interest in Canary Funds CEO Steve McClurg’s prediction for 2026. He envisions XRP diverging from other cryptos, a bold forecast worthy of attention.
“XRP, I believe, is going to be a divergent asset, actually. […] Just watching XRP perform as everything’s going straight down and we continue to get inflows every day and continue to hold up, I believe that it could look like another peak in XRP in 2026, when most of other crypto assets are going to be down.”
In terms of recent performance, XRP has appreciated by 11.5% year-to-date. Contrast this with BTC’s 4.51% rise and a 5.15% increase in total crypto market capitalisation.
The support for XRP comes from more than sentiment. Its increasing utility and a strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs bolster a cautiously bullish short-term outlook (1-4 weeks) and a more optimistic medium-term forecast (4-8 weeks).
ETF Market Dynamics
The US SOL-spot ETF market logged $816.92 million in net inflows since its October debut. Conversely, the US BTC-spot ETF witnessed substantial net outflows totaling $2.94 billion since the Canary XRP ETF launch on November 14.
Market Structure Bill Crucial for XRP Demand
The Market Structure Bill holds the key to XRP’s demand trajectory. Indeed, while ETF demand and utility are pivotal, regulation on Capitol Hill is crucial.
This week, the spotlight is on the US Senate Banking Committee’s January 15 Market Structure Bill markup. XRP is particularly sensitive to regulatory changes, especially after the SEC vs. Ripple case’s resolution in August 2025.
There’s optimism in the air, as expressed by the US Senate Banking Committee:
“Chairman Senator Tim Scott is moving forward on digital asset market structure legislation – delivering clear rules that protect Main Street, keep innovation here at home, and safeguard US national security.”
Once the US Senate Banking Committee’s draft is approved, the focus shifts to the US Senate Agriculture Committee. The aim is to merge texts before heading to the Senate floor for a vote. If passed, the US House of Representatives must approve the Bill before it reaches the President’s desk.
However, delays could undermine XRP’s outlook. Eleanor Terrett of Crypto in America warns:
“And March is the absolute earliest. Could even be the summer if the House decided to make changes to what the Senate sends them.”
Past and Present Impact
Previous price action sets a precedent. On July 17, XRP surged 14.69% after the House passed the Market Structure Bill to the Senate. Yet, the US government shutdown in H2 2025 stalled progress. This led to XRP’s drop from a high of $3.66 in July to a December low of $1.7712, prior to a January rebound.
The unfolding developments around the Market Structure Bill are pivotal. The timing of crypto-friendly legislation will undoubtedly affect XRP’s market trajectory.
