## The Tale of Gloria Solis: Navigating the American Dream
Gloria Solis made the leap across the border from Mexico to the United States in the year 1998. Finding herself in Washington state, she now toils in the agricultural sector to put food on the table for her four children. Solis is one amongst an estimated 31 million foreign-born workers, documented or without papers, who are diligently propelling the US economy forward.
### Concerns Over Political Changes
However, her serene life might be tossed into turmoil. The political tides in America have seen Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, making immigration a keystone of his campaign. Solis frets that the life she’s built could be at risk if Trump secures victory. [His immigration rhetoric](https://nfap.com/research/new-nfap-policy-brief-immigrant-entrepreneurs-and-u-s-billion-dollar-companies/) might owe its charm to partisans, but has been sharply criticised by economic experts and human rights advocates alike.
**Experts Warn of Economic Impact**
In 1950, President Dwight Eisenhower’s policy saw the deportation of over a million undocumented migrants. Fast forward to present times, Trump has vowed to deport 11 million of them, reminiscent of those aforementioned policies. The Moody’s Report forewarns of significant tightening across job markets, affecting sectors such as healthcare, retail, agriculture and construction. These sectors heavily rely on immigrant workers who form the backbone of day-to-day operations.
One may ponder, how might this sweeping change impact native-born workers? The answer isn’t as straightforward as it seems. A study published in the Journal of Labor Economics found that for every one million deported migrants, 88,000 jobs held by US natives could be lost. Businesses, bereft of their workforce, could resort to automation over expanding labour opportunities.
### The Indispensable Immigrant Workforce
For starters, Solis isn’t alone in the agriculture realm. The University of Arkansas reports that 73% of agricultural workers are immigrants. In California, nine out of ten agricultural workers share Solis’ foreign-born lineage. Yet ironically, despite welcoming foreigners working in agricultural fields, they are a controversial topic when political discussions surface—a paradox indeed.
#### Challenges in Other Sectors
Immigrants aren’t solely cultivating crops or picking fruits. In sectors like healthcare, undocumented workers surpass 346,000, alleviating a worker shortage crying out for immediate attention. Mercer Health mentions the staggering number of open nursing assistant positions—12,000 in Texas alone.
The construction sector, equally reliant on foreign-born talent, speaks its own tale of woe. In states like Texas and California, a hefty 40% of the workforce boasts a foreign lineage. This might result in escalating costs in homes due to tariffs and potential deportation, thus paving the way for hardship. Reports indicate that mortgage bans on undocumented workers are but a fraction of the market. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs threaten to spike home costs through pricier imports of essential construction materials.
### Household Income Woes
Trump has also made endeavours to dismantle the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals programme (DACA). Originally a shield against deportation for those brought as children, removing it would drastically impact the income and existence of more than half a million residents currently under DACA protection. Furthermore, households intertwined with native-born children may face a 47% reduction in income. America, with its mixed-status families, might find itself on rocky shores; after all, [a Migration Policy Institute analysis](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/9/18/what-housing-plans-do-us-presidential-candidates-trump-and-harris-offer) shows 33% of unauthorised immigrants have a child who is a US citizen.
### The Revenue Fiasco
As the whiff of political skirmishes fills the air, howbeit that the contributions of undocumented immigrants to tax revenue escape unscathed? In 2022 alone, they paid a staggering $96.7bn in taxes. Remarkably, $25.7bn was directed towards Social Security programmes they cannot benefit from. Hence, Trump’s ambitions may very well erode invaluable tax revenues that feed the American economy.
**The Looming GDP Decline**
Peterson Institute envisages a troubling 6.2% decline in GDP, should Trump manage to deport millions amongst the labour ranks—a dire forecast indeed. Conversely, the Congressional Budget Office paints a more optimistic picture, suggesting new immigrants could bring in $788bn over the next decade.
In the end, Trump’s immigration views could prove not only troubling for families like Solis’, but detrimental to the US’s economic landscape.
*Sources do provide an enlightening perspective on immigration’s profound role in the US economy. Examining [additional analyses](https://nfap.com/research/new-nfap-policy-brief-immigrant-entrepreneurs-and-u-s-billion-dollar-companies/), we’re prompted to reflect on these vital conversations shaping modern America.*
