## Economic Gloom on the Horizon
Could the winds of economic change, driven by Donald Trump’s policies, usher Europe into recession by 2025? According to [analysts from a prominent Dutch financial institution](https://think.ing.com/articles/trump-wins-tax-cuts-come-with-a-cost/#a5), this bleak scenario may become a reality.
### Trade Wars: A Looming Threat
Donald Trump, during his bid for the presidency, vowed to ignite a new trade war. Central to his plan is a 60% tariff on goods from China and a 10% tariff on all other imports into the US. Such measures could spell disaster for the eurozone’s already sluggish economy.
Currently, Europe’s economic expansion lags significantly behind the United States. In the most recent quarter, the eurozone managed a mere 0.2% growth, overshadowed by the US’s 0.7%.
### The Impact on Key Industries
Europe’s most vital export market, the US, encompasses industries like automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and luxury goods. Any new tariffs could further cripple these sectors. Particularly concerning is [Germany’s struggling automotive industry](https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-auto-giants-volkswagen-bmw-mercedes-struggle-sales-china-evs-2024-10), a cornerstone of the continent’s largest economy.
### Political and Military Considerations
Beyond trade, potential reductions in US military support for Ukraine could create additional headwinds for Europe. “Uncertainty about Trump’s stance on Ukraine and NATO may weaken economic confidence indicators,” according to the analysts. Concerns linger regarding the impact on Europe’s economy should [Trump reduce financial aid to Ukraine](https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10). The necessity for Europe to increase spending on Ukraine could exacerbate economic pains.
### Broader Economic Challenges
Nigel Green, the CEO of the UK-based deVere Group, shares these apprehensions. He warns that Europe’s high energy costs, sluggish growth, and geopolitical instabilities might worsen under a fresh trade war with the United States.
### A New Year’s Chill
Tariffs might not impact Europe immediately, but the renewed uncertainty could prompt a eurozone recession before 2025. If Trump’s proposals take shape, the region may face increased economic destabilization. Thus, maintaining economic resilience amidst shifting political dynamics remains imperative for Europe.
