## U.S. Presidential Election: Down to the Wire in Three States?
The U.S. presidential election is merely days away. According to Steven Okun, CEO of APAC Advisors, it’s likely to boil down to just three states. During an appearance on [Squawk Box Europe](https://www.cnbc.com/squawk-box-europe/), Okun suggested it would be reminiscent of prior elections. “We’ve seen similar patterns in 2016 and 2020,” Okun observed. Intriguingly, in the 2016 election, under 80,000 votes across three states swung the result. Similarly, 43,000 votes across a different trio of states delivered 2020’s outcome to President Biden.
In such tightly contested races, predicting the winner can prove near-impossible. Okun pointed out the minimal margin involved, “We’re talking 0.03% of all votes cast.” So, a handful of states, possibly just three, might determine the next leader of the U.S.
## Oil Prices Surge Amidst Tensions in the Middle East
Friday morning saw oil prices climbing, amid news that [Iran might strike Israel](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/oil-climbs-more-than-1-per-barrel-on-reports-iran-preparing-to-strike-at-israel.html). This geopolitical tension resulted in marked increases in crude oil prices. Specifically, Brent crude futures for January rose 2.5% to $74.64 a barrel, whereas West Texas Intermediate futures for December increased by 2.7% to reach $71.14.
## Resurgence of Risk Premium in the UK
A notable return of risk premium in UK bonds follows a pivotal budget announcement from the Labour government. Susannah Streeter of Hargreaves Lansdown explained the shift to [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/squawk-box-europe/). Recent fiscal announcements, including tax rises, triggered a sharp [surge](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/31/uk-borrowing-costs-soar-day-after-labours-tax-raising-budget-.html) in UK bond yields. Yet, Streeter noted this movement wasn’t solely due to inflation concerns. Uncertainty over the responsible allocation of increased investment spending also contributed. Nevertheless, it doesn’t mirror the upheaval seen during the [Trussonomics mini-budget](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/20/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-resigns-after-failed-budget-and-market-turmoil.html).
## Maersk and Reckitt Benckiser Stock Movements
Recent positive movement on the stock market is noteworthy. [Maersk shares](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/0O77-GB/) rose by over 5% on Friday. This ascent was sparked by favourable target price adjustments from JPMorgan and Barclays. Meanwhile, UK’s consumer goods giant [Reckitt Benckiser](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/RKT-GB), experiencing a 10% stock surge, found relief following a [court clearance](https://www.reuters.com/legal/abbott-reckitt-cleared-liability-latest-preterm-formula-case-2024-10-31/).
## Europe’s Market Movements and House Price Trends
In the early trading hours, European markets edged higher after a turbulent October. The Stoxx 600 benchmark index marginally increased by 0.1%.
On the home front, UK house prices [grew](https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-slows-in-october) 2.4% annually in October, as reported by Nationwide. Despite a slower pace compared to the prior month, the market remains resilient. Robert Gardner of Nationwide articulated that robust labor market conditions and strong income gains underpin these trends.
## U.S. Jobs Data Crucial for Fed’s Interest Rate Decisions
The release of [U.S. jobs data](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/31/fridays-jobs-report-is-expected-to-show-the-slowest-pace-of-hiring-in-years.html) is pivotal, as it influences Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates. Isabel Albarran from Close Brothers Asset Management, spoke on [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/squawk-box-europe/). She emphasized the significance of jobless claims data in Fed deliberations. Despite potential impacts from recent hurricanes and strikes, resilience in broader U.S. economic data remains.
With the market dynamics and election predictions in motion, stakeholders and investors alike eagerly await further developments.
