## A Flourishing Economy Before Elections: An Anglo’s Assessment
With the presidential elections imminent, the economy in the United States appears to be humming along nicely. The unemployment rate is a mere 4%, and the stock market is enjoying a long bull run, which has certainly pleased many pockets. Curiously enough, businesses are sprouting up in this climate of entrepreneurial enthusiasm. [Source](https://www.cnbc.com).
### Economic Optimism Amidst Gloom
Despite an upward surge in interest rates from 2022 to 2023, contrary to Wall Street’s forecasts of recession, America has surged ahead, leaving its peers trailing behind. However, this hasn’t necessarily lifted the spirits of Americans. Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan index, remains somewhat melancholy under President Joe Biden’s administration compared to his predecessor, Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Mr Trump has proactively addressed issues that irk the populace, like the increases in consumer prices.
### Charting Economic Narratives
Both campaigns are eager to draw voters’ attention to certain economic graphs: jobs, affordability, and wealth among them.
### Inflation and Affordability
#### Kamala Harris
Inflation is a double-edged sword for Kamala Harris. Although inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, it has since diminished to 2.4%, aligning closely with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The Fed even began to gently trim interest rates. Rising costs initially, during the pandemic, taught politicians a tough lesson on voters’ disdain for soaring prices. Despite initial hikes, inflation cooling down without triggering a recession showcases a feat many deemed improbable. This, Ms Harris hopes, will swing in her favour come election time. [Source](https://www.federalreserve.gov/).
#### Donald Trump
Though inflation rates have plummeted, actual prices have not—potentially fuelling Trump’s campaign. For example, since 2021, grocery prices have ballooned by 20%. Eggs alone jumped from roughly $1.40 to $3.80 today. Mr Trump vows to reduce prices dramatically, though economists warn that sharp price cuts might prove economically destabilising.
### Wealth: A Political Chessboard
#### Kamala Harris
Boasting about the stock market is typically Trump’s forte, yet Harris could justifiably tout its strong performance under her watch. Interestingly, the stock market under the Biden administration mirrors Trump’s early tenure. Concerns linger over Harris’s proposal to raise corporate taxes, which might weigh on market gains dramatically. However, history shows that markets tend to rise irrespective of presidential shifts. [Source](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-12228492).
#### Donald Trump
According to Trump, current policies have made American families poorer. While household net worth increased 20% under Biden, inflation has neutralised these gains, mirroring Trump’s era outcomes. Trump’s repeated claims of a wealthy nation under his leadership hinge on whether his trade policies might induce inflation again.
## Corporate Dynamism: A Boarding or Bored Economy?
#### Kamala Harris
Ms Harris’s capitalist reassurance finds its strength in her pro-small business policies. Start-up tax incentives have increased from $5,000 to $50,000, a significant move underlining her advocacy. There’s been a marked revival in entrepreneurship, lending credence to her capitalist credentials. However, the trend began during Trump’s tenure. [Source](https://www.sba.gov/).
#### Donald Trump
Tax reduction formed the crux of Trump’s earlier presidency. Again, he’s championing a fresh corporate tax cut to 15% for products made in America. While this aligns with his tax cut pledges, some analysts worry about the long-term effect on the national debt.
### Jobs: Strengthening the Labour Force
#### Kamala Harris
The U.S. continues to produce jobs at an impressive rate, with unemployment at an all-time low of 3.4%. Although job creation pace has eased, 2024 continues to witness a net gain of 200,000 jobs monthly. The Great Resignation saw employees pursue better opportunities, benefiting underprivileged job-seekers vastly. [Source](https://www.bls.gov/).
#### Donald Trump
Mr Trump envisions rekindling America’s blue-collar prominence through increased tariffs and tax cuts. However, economists caution that this approach could elevate costs for American consumers. Despite adding 400,000 manufacturing roles during his first presidency, this realm of employment remains stable post-pandemic.
### Immigration: A Global Jigsaw
#### Kamala Harris
America’s border management is a hotbed of criticism, yet Ms Harris can highlight drops in border apprehensions, particularly post-Biden’s asylum policy changes. While Trump alleges job theft by immigrants, Ms Harris can point to the significant economic contributions of undocumented workers.
#### Donald Trump
Mr Trump’s hardline immigration stance speaks ardently of a mass deportation plan. While aiming to curb unauthorized immigration, this could reduce workforce efficacy. Pew Research indicates deportation impacts would be multifaceted, likely prompting price hikes in the near term, and perhaps disrupting inflation strategies. [Source](https://www.pewresearch.org/).
### America’s Global Standing
#### Kamala Harris
Economically, America remains a beacon within the G7, leading GDP growth measures. While Biden’s inflation missteps dented confidence, Harris aims to champion tax credits, homebuyer provisions, and entrepreneur stimulus to craft an “opportunity economy”. This narrative could sway voters if they warm to “Kamalanomics”. [Source](https://www.worldbank.org/).
#### Donald Trump
Tariffs dominate Mr Trump’s external trade policy. His promises of slashing trade deficits rely on hefty tariffs, although historical precedent renders such outcomes questionable. Mr Trump’s protectionist legacy continues, yet trade imbalances persist despite these efforts.
In conclusion, as we enter the final stretch before the elections, both campaigns leverage economic narratives to appeal to voters. The question remains, which narrative will resonate more come polling day?
